The New Era of Australian Property Has Just Begun

Budget Worksheet: https://www.ripehouseadvisory.com.au/worksheet-budget Investor Decision Review: https://www.ripehouseadvisory.com.au/review 94% of Melbourne suburbs priced above $1.5 million are worth less today than they were in March — even as rents rose. This is not a crash; it is a split in the Melbourne property market, and the street you buy on now matters more than the suburb median. → 271 Melbourne suburbs had enough sales to measure properly, with two in three lower since March. → Almost 40% of measured suburbs are down 5% or more. → 94% of suburbs above $1.5 million are lower, compared with 62% around $750,000. → Rents rose 4.2% over the year while vacancy remained at 2.4%. → In 104 Melbourne suburbs, prices fell while rents rose. → New builds delivered around $13,000 a year in tax benefits, but established property was around $250,000 better off after five years in the study. What this means for you: the tax tailwind is no longer enough to carry a weak investment. Yield, holding costs, owner-occupier demand and street-level property data matter more than ever — particularly for established homes. Subscribe to Ripehouse Advisory for more data-led Australian property analysis. This video is general information only and not financial or investment advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice.

94% of Melbourne suburbs priced over $1.5 million are worth less today than they were in March. And in the same months, rents went up. Across 104 Melbourne suburbs, prices fell whilst rents rose. That isn't a crash, it's a split. And it started at 7.30 on the night of the 12th of May. That night, Australia switched off the tax rule the property market has been built on for the last 40 years. In the next few minutes, I'll show you what changed. We'll do street-by-street analysis. We'll see who won, who lost, and the playbook from here. I'm Jacob Field. I'm a dad. And before Ripe House Advisory, I spent my time working in technology. Our team and I have purchased over $1.5 billion in Australian residential real estate for property investors. We measure every one of those properties and its results down to the street level. I don't guess, I measure. Here's how we'll go. How the old game worked, with numbers. What our data shows. The four types of investors this hits differently. And the three new rules I would follow if I was buying today. This is DadMaths. And if I can't explain it to my kids at the dinner table, then I don't understand it well enough. You own a rental. It earns $50,000 a year in rent. The interest on the loan is $60,000. So, you're $10,000 behind. Under the old rules, you could take that $10,000 off your salary. Earn over $190,000 and you're paying 47 cents in tax on every extra dollar. $10,000 x 47 cents is $4,700 back from the tax office. That's DadMaths. The tax office was paying almost half your loss. In my business, we call this the push property. You take the income you earn from your job and you push it into an asset base that grows in value whilst you sleep. For a surgeon, an engineer, a senior manager, someone in that top tax bracket. Negative gearing made the push cheaper because the tax office paid part of the losses. Around 2.2 million Australians own an investment property and around half of them are negatively geared. That wasn't a loophole for a few people. It was a national playbook. And because most of the money chased established houses, that pushed the value of those properties up. Keep that $4,700 in mind because that's what's just been switched off, but not for everyone. At 7.30 on the 12th of May in the federal budget, the government drew a line. Every investment property now falls into three buckets. Bucket one, properties you already owned or were under contract to buy at that moment. These properties are grandfathered and the old rules apply to that property as long as you hold it. Bucket two, new builds. A home on vacant land, a new apartment or a site where one house is replaced by more than one dwelling. These all keep full negative gearing benefits. The definition is narrow though. Knocking down one house and building something to replace it is not generally covered. So get advice if you're going to rely on that. Bucket three, established homes purchased after budget night. From the 1st of July 2027, losses on those properties cannot reduce your salary. They're quarantined and they're carried forward against future rental income or future capital gains. If you've bought an established property since the budget in May, you can still offset losses against your salary until the 13th of June 2027. After that, the rules lock. There are capital gains changes too, but that's in another video. This is about how you buy. So in plain terms, the push just got more expensive. Here's the question nobody i