Tarneit Property Market: 743 New Homes in 6 Months | Suburb Check

Tarneit, you asked us to run the numbers — here’s what the data says. 743 new homes hit the market in just six months, but the market has still tightened. → R-Score: 91, ranking Tarneit in the top 9% nationally → Population growth over the last 3 years: 18.81% (100th percentile nationally) → Supply: 743 new dwellings in 6 months, around 11% of existing stock annually → Median house price: $590,000 over 90 days; $556,000 over 12 months → House yield: 3.44%; unit yield: 4.67% → House vacancy: 3.68% over 90 days; 2.95% over 12 months The verdict: Tarneit is a conditional buy. The growth engine is strong, but supply is heavy, so you need to buy the right asset in the right street. Established stock near the station with land content is the play; the newest fringe releases are where supply can cap returns. Download our no-cost Top Five Markets Report 2026 → https://ripe.house/five-tarneit Want your suburb checked next? Drop it in the comments. Subscribe for the next Suburb Check. #Tarneit #VictoriaProperty #AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #SuburbCheck This video is general information only and not financial or investment advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice.

743. That's how many new homes hit the Tarneit market in just six months. And here's what the data shows happen next. The market tightened. Albie sent us one word in the comments, Tarneit. So here is the full data story. We're going to tell you exactly what R-score it holds, whether that supply pipeline is fatal and what the honest verdict looks like. Let's get into it. So what is Tarneit? It sits 32 kilometres west of the Melbourne CBD in the city of Wyndham, one of Australia's fastest growing local government areas. Neighbours include Hoppers Crossing, Truganina, Werribee and Wyndham Vale. The suburbs anchor is Tarneit Station on the V-line regional rail link, roughly 30 minutes to Southern Cross Station. For context on the growth, the 2011 census counted 21,690 people. By 2016, it was 34,562. That's a 59% jump in five years. This isn't a suburb being talked about, it's a suburb being built. Before the numbers, a quick word on how we think. Property selection isn't a guess, it's a formula employment projects, lifestyle and population push demand up, new supply pulls it back down. What's left is the only number that matters, opportunity. And we run four layers, not one. LGA, suburb, street, property. Most research stops at the suburb. We keep going because inside a single Tarneit postcode, the right by and the wrong by sit 500 metres apart. That's the whole game. Now, the score. Our R-score is a momentum model that blends supply, demand, yield and short-term price signals into a single number out of 100. Tarneit reads 91, top 9% of every suburb in Australia, national rank 21. But that number has two driving engines behind it that tell very different stories. Short-term momentum percentile 96, population score percentile 98, as in virtually every suburb in Australia grows slower than Tarneit. Those two dimensions are what carry the score. We'll explain why the supply dimension pulls it back shortly. The price data. Median sold price on a house over the last 90 days, $590,000. Over the last 12 months, $556,000. So recent sales are running $34,000 above the annual average. Prices are accelerating at the margin. Units are sitting at $395,000 over 90 days. For context, the Melbourne median house is well above a million dollars. At $590,000 for a house 32 kilometres from the city on a V-line rail line, you are buying the release valve of the country's second largest city. That's not a speculative pitch. It's arithmetic. Velocity. Houses in Tarneit are selling in 23 days on the 90-day measure, down from 35 days over the year. That's a 34% acceleration. Discounting over the last 90 days is just 0.57%, almost nothing. And over the full 12 months, the discounting figure is actually negative, minus 4.2%, meaning homes sold above asking price on average. So while supply is genuinely high, and I'll get to that in a moment, the sales market isn't showing signs of distress. Two caveats before we move on. Vacancy sits at 3.68% on a 90-day read, which is elevated compared to the Melbourne average, and unemployment at 8.2% is above average. Those are the rate sensitivity flags. Hold those numbers. Now, the supply problem. 743 new dwellings added to the Tarneit market in a single six-month window, annualised, that's roughly 11% of the suburbs' entire existing housing stock per year. For comparison, Cranbourne West, which we covered two days ago, had a supply rate of 5%, per unit, and we flagged it as elevated. Tarneit is more than double that. The supply