33% Brisbane Clearance: What the 4.6% Hike Means

Brisbane cleared just 33% of reported results before the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.6%. Traders have since cut their bets on another rise in November. • Across the five capitals, 603 properties sold from 1,268 reported: 47.6% preliminary. • Brisbane fell from 64% a year ago to 33%, while Sydney recorded 50%, down from 70%. • The Wodonga suburb highlighted today showed a 4.51% yield but 14.5% vacancy. • Seymour showed a 4.67% yield and 1.8% vacancy, but its sales depth remains unverified. With 59% of Brisbane's reported results passed in, the opportunity may be in negotiation—not waiting blindly. Stress-test your buffer at 4.6%, then check yield, vacancy and owner-occupier depth. Download the full brief, clearance table and suburb maps: https://ripe.house/brief-inflation The map is a prompt, not a verdict. Always check the exact street and test each property against the evidence.

Traders have cut their bets on a November rate rise, a day after the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.6%. Brisbane went into that hike clearing only 33% of reported results down from 64 a year ago. When money gets dearer, bidders thin out before sellers adjust. And of today's two top suburbs, one points the opposite way. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.6%, a 15-year high in what ABC calls its fourth rate hike. The bank's own published cash rate table hasn't caught up yet. Its last filled row, the 29th of September, still reads 4.35%, and the 30th is blank. So the clearance numbers ahead show the market before the hike. Across the five capitals, 603 properties sold from 1,268 reported. That's 47.6% on our own aggregation and its preliminary. On domains preliminary figures for the week to the 26th of September, every capital cleared less than a year ago. Sydney, 50% down from 70. Melbourne, down from 71. Canberra, 47, down from 62. Adelaide, 39, down from 48. And Brisbane, 33, down from 64. The steepest fall at 31 points. Of Brisbane's 116 reported results, 38 sold and 68 passed in. That's a pricing gap, not a verdict on the homes. One percentage is never enough. Sydney withdrew 219 properties, about 29% of its reported results, and passed in 163, roughly one in five. Brisbane withdrew just 10, yet passed in 59% of its reported results. Adelaide passed in 51%, Melbourne, 38, Canberra, 34. In Sydney, many sellers stepped back before the day. In Brisbane and Adelaide, sellers turned up and met a thin room. Two new suburbs today, both regional Victorian, both at the 99th percentile nationally in our August snapshot. First, the suburb on screen now in the city of Wodonga, rolling yield 4.51% and 83.9% of homes owner occupied. Depth is real, 38 sales in 12 months from 615,000 to 1.25 million. But vacancy reads 14.5%, the number to check first. Second, Seymour in Mitchell Shire, yield 4.67%, vacancy just 1.8, and 63.9% owner occupied. One caveat, our sales table found no match Seymour sales in 12 months. So treat its depth as unverified. Four map layers tell the street story, sold price, rental yield, owner occupied depth and social housing. Our Wodonga suburb has 1,287 addresses across 103 streets at a 90-day rolling sold price of $749,000 with no public housing recorded. Seymour's rolling sold price is $518,000 and public housing sits at about 6.7% in our profile. The map is a prompt, not a verdict. Always check the exact street. Here's the contrast I flagged at the top. Our engine sold price signal points down for the Wodonga suburb and up for Seymour. Same state, same percentile, opposite directions. The rental picture splits two. Vacancy in the Wodonga suburb is about eight times Seymour's. A buyer carrying dearer debt needs the rent to arrive, which is why vacancy can outweigh a headline yield. A caution on the clearance board. Sydney cleared 50% on 768 reported results. Melbourne's 49 came from only 219 and Canberra's 47 from just 86. Sample size matters as much as the rate. ABC reports the Reserve Bank is unlikely to lift again in November after lower than expected inflation figures and traders cut their bets on a November rise as the big banks pass Tuesday's decision on. Over at realestate.com.au, the counter view is that stubborn inflation keeps a November hike in focus. Home approvals also dropped with an apartment plunge threatening the Albanese target. For investors, fewer new homes means tighter supply