78 Passed In, 50.7% Clearance Tells The Story

78 Brisbane sellers went home without a buyer, but that does not tell the full story. Saturday’s room told us about method; the fundamentals still tell us about value. - Cash rate held at 4.35% on the 17th of September - Five-capital clearance came in at 50.7% from 717 sold out of 1,415 reported - Brisbane cleared 29% with 129 reported, 38 sold and 78 passed in - Sydney withdrew 177 properties before auction, while Brisbane withdrew 13 The research engine’s highest-ranked suburbs this week are Carisbrook, Victoria 3464 and South Lismore, New South Wales 2480 — both at the 100th percentile nationally. Get the full Monday brief, the five-capital table, both system watch suburbs and the street maps here: https://ripe.house/brief-vacancy Disclaimer: General information only, not financial advice. Always do your own research before making property decisions.

78 Brisbane sellers went home on Saturday without a buyer. Three in five reported properties in that city passed in. And yet the two suburbs our research engine ranks highest this week sit a long way from Brisbane. That's not a contradiction, it's leverage. Saturday's room tells you about method. The fundamentals tell you about value. Start with the scoreboard. The cash rate held at 4.35% on the 17th of September, unchanged and still the anchor under every mortgage in the country. Across the five capitals domain reported 717 properties sold from 1,415 reported. That is a 50.7% clearance on our own aggregation. Sydney and Canberra both landed on 48. Here is the contradiction. Melbourne cleared 57%, Sydney 48, Adelaide 51, Brisbane 29, same weekend, same country, barely half the clearance. Brisbane's auction numbers are thin, 129 reported, 38 sold, 78 passed in. That is a market where the room went quiet, not one where the asset lost value. There's a second number worth your attention, withdrawals. Sydney pulled 177 properties before they ever reached a bidder. More than a third of everything reported. Brisbane withdrew 13. That isn't one market behaving two ways, that's two different vendor mindsets. Sydney sellers are reading the room early and stepping back. Brisbane sellers are turning up and taking the result. So where does the research engine point? Two suburbs, both at the 100th percentile nationally, Carisbrook, Victoria 3464, 83% owner-occupier, a 6.47% gross yield, 2% vacancy, and 23 sales across the past year at a mean of 443,000. Then South Lismore, New South Wales, 2480, a 6.89% yield and vacancy at half of 1%. The tightest number on this page. The street maps show where the money actually sits. Sold price, rental yield, owner-occupier depth and social housing concentration, street by street for both suburbs. Carisbrook runs 875 addresses across 79 streets. South Lismore packs 1,806 addresses into 45. Now the money. Sydney turned over $234 million across 235 sales at a median of 1.59 million. Our two system watch suburbs trade at 443,000 and 438,000. You could buy three of those regional houses for one Sydney median and collect better than 6% gross on every one of them. One last warning about percentages. Adelaide printed 51% this week and Sydney printed 48. They look like neighbours, but Adelaide's number rests on 77 reported results and Sydney's rests on 486. Canberra's 48% comes off just 64. A thin sample moves on a handful of houses and Melbourne for all its 57% still sent 205 vendors home without a buyer, the largest count of any capital. Depth is what makes a percentage mean something. One story worth your time this morning. Domain published a piece just after midnight on the missing middle. Four medium-rise buildings in inner Sydney and what mid-rise housing could look like at scale. Meanwhile, in inner North Brisbane, siblings are taking a 2,500 square metre corner block to the market with 138-year-old homestead on it and $520,000 of rental income attached. So here's the method. Don't read a single weekend as a verdict on value. Read it as a verdict on method. Who turned up, who withdrew, and who held their nerve? Then go and check the fundamentals underneath, supply, yield, vacancy, and how much of the street actually owns the roof over their head. That's where the next five years of rent and resale gets decided. Question of the day, my property passed in. Did the market just reject it? No. A pass-in means the room l