204,000 Homes Short — And New Builds Won

The National Housing Accord is now forecast to miss by 204,000 homes — and the money is moving exactly where the policy sent it. • Master Builders now forecasts Australia finishes 204,000 homes short of the Accord target • Investor loan commitments for new dwellings hit 10,923 in the June quarter, the highest in the series • Existing dwelling investor lending is down nearly 19% from its December peak • New builds are now nearly 21% of all investor lending, up from under 17% a year ago The real story is composition, not collapse. If you want the full report on where we are buying for clients, use this link: https://ripe.house/brief-accord Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not constitute financial, legal or tax advice.

204,000 homes. That is the shortfall Master Builders now forecast against the National Housing Accord. And overnight the target slipped again from June 2029 to the end of 2030. But buried in the same week's data is an all time record that nobody reported. Two suburbs today and one of them just had its rule book rewritten. Start with the number in every headline. Master Builders forecast Australia lands 204,000 homes short of the accord target and their chief executive expects that gap to widen. Now the number that got no headline at all, 10,923, that is investor loan commitments for new dwellings in the June quarter. The highest in the entire history of the series. And the mirror image, investor lending into existing homes is down nearly 19% from its December peak. The money did not leave. It moved. Here is why this matters. And it is the part the coverage missed. In May, the budget ended negative gearing on existing properties bought after budget night. It explicitly kept it on new ones. The stated goal was to pull investor capital away from old stock and into new supply. Two quarters later, the Bureau of Statistics can tell us whether that worked. It worked. Over the last four quarters, new dwelling commitments went up every single time $8,900, then $9,700, $10,400 and $10,900. Existing dwelling lending fell almost 19% from its peak over the same stretch. Year on year, the contrast is sharper still. Total investor lending is up under 3%. New dwelling lending is up nearly 22% by number and 26% by value. One of those is a market. The other is a policy working. New builds are now nearly 21% of all investor lending, up from under 17% a year ago. That is the highest share in over two years. The state picture explains the slip. Victoria has built about 32% of its share. Western Australia, 29. South Australia, 28. Queensland, 24. New South Wales is on 21% and is not forecast to meet its obligation until March 2032. Tasmania on 16%, not until 2034. So where does that capital actually land? Suburb one is Brompton in inner Adelaide, about two kilometres from the city. Median, 910,000. Gross yield, 4%. Vacancy, 1.2%. But the number that matters today is this one. 45% owner-occupier. Brompton is already a majority investor and renter suburb, and it grows through new infill stock. Suburb two is Parkinson in Brisbane South, 1.5 million. Yield just under 3%. Vacancy, 0.9. 78% owner-occupier. And there is the flip. Parkinson is 1.7 times the price on three quarters of the yield. Both sit in the same top percentile band, and they are built on opposite foundations. Parkinson's value is defended by owner-occupiers who simply do not sell. Brompton's is driven by investor capital and new supply. The budget just rewrote the rules for exactly one of those two, and it is not the expensive one. Four layers on Brompton, street by street, price first, and the spread inside one small suburb is the whole argument for going street level. Yield second. The strongest cash flow is not on the streets with the highest prices. It rarely is. Owner-occupier share third. Watch where the pockets of established ownership sit against the pockets of newer stock. And recent sold activity last. That is where the market is actually clearing right now. Question one, and it is a good one. Rajeev asked on the investor applications video, what is the year on year comparison? He had seen a scary quarterly drop and wanted to know whether the annual trend agreed with it. Rajeev, today's