4.5% Unemployment, 4.6% NIRU

Australia’s unemployment rate hit 4.5% yesterday, but the detail underneath was more interesting. - Full-time jobs rose 16,300 to 10.2 million - Part-time work fell 32,200 - CBA puts the NIRU at about 4.6%, and we printed 4.5% - Western Australia shed 1.4% of employment in a single month That matters for borrowing power, lender treatment of income, and how you read the headline versus the mix beneath it. We also break down why two suburbs can react in opposite directions to the same national number, and why a median only tells you what cleared — not what a typical home is worth. If you want the Top Five Markets Report, download it here: https://ripe.house/brief-fulltime Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

Australia's unemployment rate hit 4.5% yesterday, the highest of the post-COVID era. Now, the number nobody printed. Full-time jobs went up 16,300 in the very same month. One state did almost all of the damage. And this morning, I'll show you two suburbs where that same national number is pulling in exactly opposite directions. Start with the number that made every front page, 4.5%, up from 4.4%, 691,500 people looking for work, 45,000 more than a year ago. That part of the story is real, and I'm not going to talk you out of it. Here's what almost nobody led with. In the same release, full-time employment rose by 16,300 to 10.2 million. The fall was part-time work, down 32,200. Employment didn't just shrink, it recomposed. And those two things have very different consequences for you. And the number that frames both. CBA puts the NIRU, the unemployment rate the Reserve Bank thinks is consistent with inflation at target, at about 4.6%. We printed 4.5%. On the Reserve Bank's own framework, this labour market is still fractionally on the tight side. The ABC ran it yesterday morning, highest unemployment of the post-COVID era. Every outlet carried a version of it, and the governor of the Reserve Bank had said only last week that she wanted a little less tightness in the labour market. So here's the uncomfortable question. If the central bank asked for this, is it a failure, or is it the plan working? This is the whole month in one picture. Full-time up 16,300, part-time down 32,200. Net, minus 15,800. And that net number is the only one that made the headline. But a bank does not lend against a net number. This is the part that decides what you can borrow. Full-time PAYG income is accessible in full from your first payslip. Casual and part-time income usually needs six to 12 months of history before a lender will count it, and plenty of lenders shade it even then. So the category that grew in July is the category banks lend against. And the category that shrank is the one they were already discounting. And the pace matters. 10 months ago, the trend rate was 4.3. Yesterday, it was 4.5. That is two tenths of 1% across most of a year. Whatever that is, it is not a spike. And the language being used around it is doing a lot of work that the data isn't. And it isn't even national. Western Australia shed 1.4% of its employment in a single month, roughly 14 times the national move, and gave up a full point of participation at the same time. Queensland grew three tenths. Tasmania grew half a percent. Be fair to the WA number, though. Its own unemployment rate only ticked up one tenth to 4.4, still below the national figure because people left the labour force rather than joined a queue. One state's month became the country's headline. So let's put that where it actually lands. Oak Park, 11 kilometres north-northwest of the Melbourne CBD median, sold price $1.14 million. 67% owner occupied and a 95th percentile R score. And here is the tension in one frame. Price still edging up 3.6% on the short-term signal, but the yield is 2.96% and the vacancy signal is plus 16.3. Vacancy is loosening 4.5 times faster than the price is rising. At a $1.14 million median on a sub-3% yield, the rent is not what is holding this price up. Borrowing capacity is now the other direction. Melbourne, up on the Murray near Mildura, $481,500, 42% of Oak Park's price on a 4.86% yield. 99th percentile R score. And the signals are the mirror image. Sold plus 15.7%, vacancy plu