RBA Held — Housing Already Turned

The Reserve Bank held at 4.35% and, in the same statement, admitted housing momentum has shifted. That’s the real story. • Cash rate held at 4.35%, with the vote unanimous • Inflation not expected back in the middle of target until late 2027 • National clearance rate hit 55.1% — an 11-week high • Prices are still falling in some capital cities while some buyers step back in Then we break down why a hold can lift confidence without removing pressure, and why street-level data matters more than the headline cash rate. We also compare Wheelers Hill and Andergrove to show how the same rate environment can produce very different outcomes across the market. Download the free Top Five Markets Report: https://ripe.house/brief-hold Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

The Reserve Bank held at 4.35% yesterday, and in the very same statement, they wrote this. Momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities. That is not a forecast from an economist. That is the central bank telling you the turn already happened. Stay with me, because the street maps at the end show you exactly where it did not. Three numbers before we go further. The cash rate 4.35% unchanged, and the vote was unanimous. Inflation is not expected to be back at the middle of the target band until late 2027. That is the Reserve Bank's own projection, and they flagged upside risks to it. And Saturday's national clearance rate came in at 55.1%, an 11-week high, while prices keep tracking south. Hold that contradiction, because it is the whole story. Here is how it is being read this morning. Rates on hold. Relief at last. The worst is behind us. But read the actual statement, and the board is doing something far more interesting than pausing, because this is what a hold actually looks like. Three increases this year, February, March, and May, taking the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%. Then June, hold. Then yesterday, hold again. Two holds do not undo three increases. The tightening is still in the system, and the board said financial conditions are now tighter than they were. And this is a sentence nobody is putting on the front page. In one statement, the Reserve Bank confirmed housing prices are falling in some capital cities. New housing loans are declining noticeably, and mortgage repayments as a share of household income are back near their 2024 peak. Then they added that they would raise rates further if upside risks materialise. That is not the language of relief. So why did clearance rates just hit an 11-week high? Because a hold removes uncertainty, even when it does not remove pressure. Buyers who are waiting for a number now have won. 55.1%, up from 53.6% the week before with Melbourne above 60%. The market that corrected first is bidding first. That is what a resort looks like while the headline number sits perfectly still. If a national hold tells you nothing about your street, then the street is where the work has to happen. Our free ebook shows the five markets we are buying in right now and why. Go to ripe.house slash brief dash hold. Start with Wheelers Hill in Melbourne's east. 19,000 people, 78% owner occupied, and a median around $1.34 million. This is exactly the kind of established blue chip suburb people assume is safe by default. But look at what the signals are doing. The 12-month gross yield sits at 3.09%, while the most recent 90-day signal has compressed to 1.91%. And vacancy has gone the wrong way too, from 1.20% on the annual figure to 2.89% on the short-term read. Rents are not keeping up with the price, and there are more empty properties than there were. That is a holding cost problem in a suburb nobody would call risky. Now, Andergrove in the Mackay region of Queensland, a median around 711,000, 65% owner occupied, about half the price of Wheelers Hill, and every signal points the other way. The 12-month yield of 5.04% has strengthened to 6.38% on the 90-day read, and vacancy has tightened from 1.90% to 1.55%. Same country, same cash rate, same decision yesterday, opposite direction. This is the point. 4.35% is one number applied to a market that behaves like 40,000 separate ones, which is why we go a level deeper. This is Wheelers Hill at street level, and this