4.35% Cash Rate, Decision Four Today

Three rate rises this year, and today the Reserve Bank decides again at half past two. The market is already telling you something important: the old cheap-money era is finished. • Cash rate is 4.35% after February, March and May hikes • Futures are pricing a 64% chance of another rise before year-end • The 10-year government bond is at 5%, the highest in 15 years • Sydney is still mixed: 97% of suburbs fell over 3 months, but only 46% over 12 months What matters now is where the rent, vacancy and ownership profile can absorb the rate cycle — and where the street level data still works in your favour. Get the free Top Five Markets Report: https://ripe.house/brief-decision Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice.

Three times this year, the Reserve Bank has put your repayments up, not one cut, three increases, February, March and May. And at half past two this afternoon, they decide again. You are watching this before that decision lands. So here is what actually pays you either way, including one Queensland town at 100 on our R score, where the vacancy rate is under 1% street by street, three numbers before the decision, the cash rate is 4.35%. And it got there the hard way, a quarter point in February, again in March, again in May. Since then, two meetings on hold. The market is not pricing relief either. Futures put a 64% chance on another rise before this year is out. And the 10-year government bond now yields 5%, the highest in 15 years. That last one matters most and almost nobody is talking about it. Alan Kohler put it plainly on the ABC yesterday morning. The era of cheap money is finished, not paused, finished, and he ties it to the bond market, not the Reserve Bank. His words, the days of super low interest rates that characterise the decade to 2022 are over. If he is right, waiting for the old normal to come back is not a strategy. It is a delay. Here is the path and it is the part the headlines skip. The Reserve Bank cut to 3.6% and then took every one of those cuts back. February, March, May, a quarter point each time back to 4.35%. Today is the fourth decision of that run. Two on hold and now this one. Meanwhile, the story on the ground split in two. In Sydney, 97% of suburbs fell over the last three months, but stretch the window to 12 months and that number drops to 46%. Read those two together. This is a sharp three-month repricing sitting inside a longer run that for more than half of Sydney is still positive. And the auction floor says the same thing in a different accent. On Saturday, Melbourne cleared 63%, its strongest in months, while Sydney managed 49%. Domain's Nicola Powell puts it down to price. Melbourne, she says, just is not as expensive compared to the other capitals anymore. The market that corrected first is the market bidding first. If you want the list we are actually buying from, it is free. ripe.house slash brief dash decision, the top five market opportunities with the street level numbers behind them. So where does a rate decision matter least? Where the rent already covers the risk? Maryborough, Queensland on the Fraser Coast, 15,000 people, a typical sold price around $615,000 and an R-score of 100, the top of our national set. Then Berserker in Rockhampton, cheaper again at about $550,000, a yield signal above 7% and vacancy near 1%. Two towns, one question and the answer is never the suburb average, it is the street. This is Maryborough, four streets at a time, first sold price, green is where the money settles, red is where it does not. Then rental yield and the highest yields are almost never on the best looking streets. Then owner occupiers, the higher that share, the more neighbours who cannot be evicted by a rate rise because they are not renting and they are not selling. And last, social housing concentration, the layer that decides your tenant pool and your resale and the one a suburb average will never show you. Four streets can sit inside one postcode and behave like four different investments. Question of the day, Samir asked for the same treatment on Point Cook in Melbourne's West. Here is the honest read. Point Cook is a big established family suburb at nearly 50,000 people, a typical sold pr