0.4% Falls, But 3 Suburbs Hit R97-R100

National home values fell 0.4% in June, but that headline misses the real story: the market is splitting. • RBA cash rate sits at 4.35% • June quarter CPI lands on July 29, with the next RBA decision 21 days away on August 11 • Trimmed mean inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.6% • Three suburbs are tracking between R97 and R100, including Anstead at a perfect 100 Jacob breaks down why the national average hides the pockets where supply has already run out — and why vacancy, ownership and yield matter more than the fear in the headlines. Download the Top Five Markets Report: https://ripe.house/brief-fomo. Disclaimer: This video is general information only and does not consider your personal objectives, financial situation or needs.

National home values just fell 0.4% in June, the biggest monthly drop in more than three years. That's the number from Kotali Tea, and it's the number every headline is running with this morning. But here's the one they're not running. While the national average fell, a suburb 40 minutes from Brisbane just posted a perfect R100 on our tracking system with a 6.09% yield and 93% owner-occupiers. The market isn't falling, it's splitting. And this morning I'm going to show you exactly where the split is. Welcome to the dashboard. The RBA cash rate sits at 4.35%, and the next decision lands in 21 days, August 11. But the real fork in the road comes in just eight days. The June quarter CPI drops on July 29. And it matters more than usual because the trimmed mean, the number, the RBA actually watches, just rose from 3.4 to 3.6%. Headline inflation is easing. Underlying inflation is moving the wrong way. Eight days until we find out which one wins. I'm Jacob Field. This is your morning brief for Tuesday, July 21. On story today, and it's the one shaping every conversation in the market right now. Domain ran it yesterday under the headline, FOH is gone. Australia's housing market remains in slowdown. The picture they paint is bleak. Open homes averaging 2.1 people through the door down from 3.6 a year ago. Auction clearance rates sitting around 50% nationally. The chief executive of AFG summed up the buyer mood in one line, nobody wants to catch a falling knife. Ray White's chief economist points to three rate rises this year and consumer sentiment that remains deeply pessimistic. Even Southeast Queensland or the market that ran hottest has shifted from fear of missing out to, I'll wait and see. Now here's where I break from the headline. The falling knife story treats the Australian market as one thing, it is not one thing. It is 14,000 suburbs and our R-score engine tracks every one of them every day. And what the data shows is not a market falling, it's a market bifurcating. That national 0.4% decline is a weighted average and weighted averages hide everything interesting. Underneath it this morning, three suburbs are scoring between R97 and a perfect R100, including one with supply at effectively zero and rents at record highs. Because remember the other side of this market, vacancy is below 1% nationally, Sydney houses are renting at $850 a week, Brisbane at 700, prices soft, rents at record, so that's not a crash, that's a squeeze. The investor waiting for a macro all clear is going to miss the micro opportunities where the tightening has already happened. If you want this data first, every morning hit subscribe, you'll be first in line for the daily briefs. Now let me show you the three suburbs. System watch, two suburbs flagged overnight and they could not be more different which is exactly the point. First, Anstead, Queensland, Brisbane's Western acreage corridor about 40 minutes from the city, R score, a perfect 100. Median sold price, $700,000. And here's the number that made me look twice in a 6.09% gross yield. On a $700,000 acreage market that is rare air. The ownership structure explains why. 93.1% owner occupier, one of the highest readings anywhere in our system. 1500 residents, median household income of nearly $50,000 a week across the household pool. The most affluent suburb in our candidate set by a wide margin supply over the last 12 months, 0.02. Effectively nothing came to market and the short term sold price signal is ru