46% clearance rate: market splits in two

46% national auction clearance rate — and that is the sixth consecutive week below 50. • Sydney cleared 46.4%, up three points week on week • Melbourne lifted to 49.6%; Brisbane sank to 23.5%, its worst read in over six years • Adelaide slipped to 45.5%, with nearly one in five scheduled auctions withdrawn • 41% of sales are now happening before auction day The takeaway: this market has split clean in two. Middle-market buyers with finance are quietly gaining leverage, while cash buyers at the top end keep paying their own way. If you want the data behind where we'd actually put money this year, download the free Five Market Environments report: https://ripe.house/brief General information only. Seek personal advice before acting.

46 per cent. That is the national auction clearance rate. Final numbers for last week, and it is the sixth consecutive week below 50. We haven't seen a run this week since April 2020, when the country was in lockdown. Under the hood, Sydney cleared 46.4, actually up three points week on week. Melbourne, 49.6, also firmer. The shocker is Brisbane, 23.5 per cent, its worst read in over six years. Adelaide slipped to 45.5, and nearly one in five scheduled auctions never made it to the floor, withdrawn before bidding started. The cash rate sits at 4.35 on hold since June. About 1,300 homes went under the hammer yesterday. Preliminary results land tonight, and you'll get the full wrap in tomorrow's brief. The story of the weekend, this market has split clean in two. At street level, it's a standoff, one in five vendors pulling their auctions, and 41 per cent of sales now happening before auction day, which is sellers choosing certainty over competition. History says clearance rates under 50 per cent travel with soft prices for the following six to 12 months. And yet, on Friday, a Rose Bay penthouse sold off the plan for $24 million, a suburb record in a building that hasn't been built. Cash buyers at the top of the market do not care what the Reserve Bank does. So the honest read, there is no single Australian property market right now. If you're buying in the middle of the market with finance, the leverage is quietly shifting to you, and the withdrawal numbers prove it. System watch. Our tracking rescored the country overnight. Three movers caught the machine's eye. One, Castletown on WA's south coast, median up 22 per cent in a single month to $750,000, yielding 5.4. But here's the thing. Our internal scores on it are declining while the price runs. Momentum without foundations. Watch it, don't chase it. Two, Bundol, Gold Coast, our score 100, top shelf of the entire country. Median up 8.8 per cent to $1.85 million. And our growth signal surged 50 per cent this month. That data is unambiguously bullish. Three, Mafra in Gippsland. Median up 17 per cent and vacancy tightening. But yields compressed 14 per cent in a month. Price outrunning rent is a market borrowing growth from its own future. Full breakdowns of markets like these drop on this channel every single night. Question of the day, and it's a good news edition. Stu asked for a full Casey versus regional Victoria showdown. Berwick, Cranbourne North, and Naray Warren. Up against Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton, Warrnambool, and Wodonga. Stu, it's already live. Nine markets, one scoreboard. Link below. Your comment became a finished video in under a day. And Kevin asked about Werribee and Hoppers Crossing. They're in the engine now, coming this week. If you want your suburb next, drop it in the comments. We read every single one. Coming up this week, migration numbers on Wednesday. That's the rental demand signal to watch. And the big one is on the horizon, June quarter inflation on July 30, which sets the table for the Reserve Bank in August. If you want to know where we'd actually put money this year, the free five market environments report is linked below. That's the morning brief. Back tomorrow, 6 AM, same place. Go get your Sunday. See you.