Median Prices Are Misleading — The Data Says Why

National headlines are pointing to falling median house prices, but the underlying sold-price data tells a different story. In Australia, property values can rise even while the median falls — and this video shows why the mix of homes selling matters. → Median prices have been trending down since April, with the clearest contraction showing after the budget → In the sold-price decile data, prices recovered strongly for about 4–5 weeks, especially in the upper price bands → Around one in five sales were over $1.5 million in November and as recently as February 2026 → More recently, only about one in ten sales have been in the $1.5 million plus bracket → August showed a lower median, but the composition-adjusted average value increased → The same pattern shows up in units: the median fell, but the underlying value signal did not What this means for you: if you only look at the median, you can miss what’s actually happening on the ground. For investors and homebuyers, the better question is whether underlying values, volume mix and yield conditions are improving — because that’s where buying decisions get made. Download our no-cost Top Five Markets Report 2026 → https://ripe.house/five-markets Subscribe for more data-led Australian property analysis from Ripehouse Advisory. #AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #BuyersAgent #PropertyMarketAustralia #HousePrices #MedianPrice This video is general information only and not financial or investment advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice.

Yesterday I filmed a video where we did an analysis on the changes in decile sold prices in Australia at the moment. Then about 30 minutes later I was scrolling along and noticed a chart tracking median price changes month to month. It was from Dr. Andrew Wilson, seemingly, you know, he is a reputable source, well known in the industry, and it was showing that the month-to-month median prices were, you know, reducing each month right up until August as we can see here on the right. They were in contradiction of each other and I'm like how can this be? Can these two charts be both correct at the same time? That's what I wanted to investigate for us today because as we know the national headlines are doom and gloom, you know, we can really quickly see there the trend of the national quarterly median house price, and it's the same for units, has been reducing month on month since a high in April. But does that mean that property prices are actually going backwards? Sorry, property values, are they actually going backwards? And is this doom and gloom headline, or all of these doom and gloom headlines, actually the reality on the ground with what we're seeing? So I wanted to dig into this really quickly. We need to answer this question, which one of these charts is correct and can both of them be correct at the same time? Now I won't cover what, you know, this decile research and charts actually is. Check out my video yesterday if you'd like to take a deeper dive into how we constructed this. But what it's clearly showing that over, essentially across all price bands, but most prominently in the upper price bands, you know, the most expensive properties turning over, this is sold prices, prices have actually been recovering now for about four or five weeks, quite strongly in fact. And so it's in direct contradiction of the changes in the national median price that we're seeing from Dr. Andrew Wilson. You know, we can see that really clearly here with the yellow line prices recovering strongly. But it's actually almost across all price points, with the exception of maybe decile five is the only one that's pulled back very slightly over the last couple of weeks or week or so. So you know, this is in direct contradiction of this national median price graph. So let's go into this quickly. And I'll talk through, you know, we can see median prices increasing all the way up until basically the budget. And then, you know, ding, ding, ding, almost right in alignment, the median price starts contracting. And that's feeding the national headline of doom and gloom, property prices collapsing. You know, the market's tanking, the market's going backwards. But we need to understand what is a median price? And how can that not accurately reflect what is actually occurring on the ground? It's the same story here for units almost identical. It's just, you know, $500,000 cheaper as you'd expect a unit to be. How can these two things be true together, the data doesn't lie, we need to get into the real story. I'm going to go back now to the decile pricing chart. And it starts because this chart helps and starts hinting at volume, because volume is actually the real story here. You can see a change in national median prices, you know, going up or down. Big, you know, caused by a couple of things, and they can be both true together. So I mix my words there, but it's it needs to be clear. So I'll go, you know, I'll go into this again for us, the national median pri