6 Forecasts, 0 Winners — The 2026 Scorecard

Perth surged 23.9% over the year to June while Melbourne fell 0.9% — a 24.8 percentage point gap between two Australian capital cities. We went back and scored every major 2026 property forecast against what prices actually did, and the result was brutal: not one of six had a capital city falling in 2026. → Perth +23.9% over the year to June → Melbourne -0.9% over the year to June → Not one of six major forecasts had a capital city falling in 2026 → Two capital cities were already falling by June → The RBA hiked in February, March and May, from 3.60% to 4.35% → Auction clearance rates sat below 50% since late May, from a peak near 72% last September What this means for you is simple: forecasts matter, but they are sentiment inputs — not a substitute for buying the right suburb, dwelling type, and market environment. The real edge comes from using professional research and a buyers agent to read the data properly. Download our no-cost Top Five Markets Report 2026 → https://ripe.house/five-forecasts Subscribe for more data-led Australian property analysis. 0:00 2026 forecast scorecard 0:44 KPMG and Westpac grades 1:52 ANZ, Domain and CBA 3:05 What the models missed 4:28 What $160,000 in error looks like 5:40 Why averages fail 6:45 The framework we use instead 7:55 2027 forecasts and the takeaway #AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #BuyersAgent #PropertyForecast #SydneyProperty #PerthProperty This video is general information only and not financial or investment advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek professional advice.

Perth is up 23.9% over the year to June. Melbourne is down 0.9. That is a 24.8 percentage point gap between two Australian capital cities. And 12 months ago, not one major forecaster predicted either number. Today, we're doing something nobody else in this industry does. We went back and pulled every major 2026 property forecast, CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB, KPMG, and Domain, and scored them against what prices actually did. Six report cards, six grades, and here's the headline before we start. Not one of the six had a single capital city falling in 2026. By June, two were falling, and all six had quietly torn up their own numbers. Stay to the end, because the market almost nobody bothered to model finished as the strongest capital in the country. Let's mark the exams. We'll grade worst first. KPMG, they forecast Sydney up 5.8% this year, and Melbourne up 6.8%. Sydney fell 3.2% in the June quarter alone. Melbourne is negative for the year. That's an F, and it isn't close. Westpac, in their early 2026 numbers, Sydney plus 3, Melbourne plus 4. By mid-year, Westpac's own update reads Sydney minus 3, Melbourne minus 4. The same bank, the same cities, the same year, with the signs flipped. Grade D. ANZ, they started at plus 4.8% for the capital cities. In April, they cut it to 2.8. In June, they went to minus 2.1, and re-marked Sydney all the way down to minus 8.4%. That is a 6.9 percentage point reversal of their own headline number inside a year. Grade D domain. Their November forecast report was titled Record Highs and the First Home Buyer Boom. To be fair, Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide did set records. But on the two biggest markets in the country, the turn caught them completely. Grade C minus. CBA last August, national prices up 4% in 2026, with two more rate cuts coming. The rate cuts never came. We got three hikes instead, and CBA now expects the year to finish flat. But credit where it's due, their ordering Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide lead was exactly right. Grade C NAB. Their headline, about 5% year will land too high. But buried in their April housing monitor was the single most accurate sentence any bank published this cycle. Australia no longer has one housing market. It has four. Grade B minus. Best of the banks. So the final scorecard, no A, no B, and one thing all six agreed on, not a single capital city would fall in 2026. Two already have. Now, I said one call was genuinely right. Hold that thought because who made it and how is the most useful thing in this video. Here's what the models didn't see coming. First, rates. Almost every 2026 forecast was built on an assumption of falling interest rates. Instead, the Reserve Bank hiked in February, March, and May, taking the cash rate from 3.60 to 4.35% and unwinding every cut from 2025. The single input at the centre of every forecast went the wrong way. Second, the budget. On the 12th of May, negative gearing was restricted on established homes and the capital gains discount was replaced. The biggest change to property taxation in nearly three decades. No bank model had it. And the market told us in real time, prices peaked in March, auction clearance rates have sat below 50% since late May from a peak near 72 last September. Sales are down 16.2% on a year ago. Stock on market is up around 11%. In June, national values fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since December, 2022. Watch how the forecasters responded. A, N, Z, 4.8, then 2.8, then minus 2.1. C, B, A, 5% in March, thr