Essendon (VIC 3040) in Focus 2026: $1,815,000 Median, 2.2% Yield & 74/100 R-Score

Market Classification: Affluent Owner-Occupier Upgrader Market · R-Score: 74/100 (National Rank #4,075 of 15,286) · Street Average: 38/100 across 147 streets.

Essendon is an established, high-income owner-occupier market where land scarcity and school/amenity appeal drive long-term capital values ($1,815,000 median). Because gross rental yields sit at 2.2%, this is not a cashflow play—it is a scarcity and land-banking market suited to high-income investors or rentvestors who prioritise street-level prestige and long-term compounding over immediate net yield.

Below is our full September 2026 quantitative and street-level breakdown for Essendon (VIC 3040), combining 36 months of settled price and rental history from our Aurora research warehouse, council-level supply and employment data for Moonee Valley (VIC), and block-by-block ABS 2021 Census SA1 tenure and yield rankings across 13,219 residential addresses.

1. Essendon (VIC) 3-Year Market Trajectory & 27-Indicator R-Score (September 2026)

Over the past 12 months, Essendon’s median house price moved +12% (from $1,620,000 to $1,815,000), bringing its 3-year cumulative price movement to +15.8% (from $1,568,000 three years ago). On the rental side, median weekly asking rents moved -5.7% over the past year to $750/wk (+12.5% over 36 months), equating to a 2.2% gross rental yield. Compared with 12 months ago—when Essendon carried an R-Score of 89/100—its current composite R-Score of 74/100 represents a -15-point shift in underlying market pressure.

Indicator / R-Score Pillar	Essendon (VIC) Current	12-Month / 36-Month Context
Composite Suburb R-Score	74 / 100	Ranked #4,075 of 15,286 suburbs (was 89/100 12m ago)
Median House Price	$1,815,000	12m change: +12% · 36m change: +15.8%
Median Weekly Rent & Gross Yield	$750/wk (2.2%)	12m rent change: -5.7% · 36m rent change: +12.5%
Rental Vacancy & Days on Market	2.8% vacancy	Median selling time: 61 days on market (1.5% vacancy is the tight-market line)
Pillar 1: Buyer Demand	30 / 100	Measures days-on-market compression, vendor discounting & sales velocity
Pillar 2: Supply & Ownership	32 / 100	Measures stock on market, building approvals vs stock & owner-occupier share
Pillar 3: Price Momentum	60 / 100	Measures short/medium-term price velocity vs Moonee Valley & VIC
Pillar 4: Yield Pressure	44 / 100	Measures gross rental yield, rent trajectory & vacancy compression

2. The “Two-Speed Suburb” Test: Best & Worst Streets in Essendon (VIC)

Why do two 4-bedroom houses in Essendon achieve completely different bank valuations and tenant quality? Because suburb medians blend every pocket together. When we map all 13,219 addresses across 147 streets in Essendon through G-NAF to their ABS 2021 Census SA1 blocks, the suburb splits into three distinct tiers:

• Strong Street Profile (Score 75–100): 21 streets (15% of scored streets) pass both ABS Census tenure tests (owner-occupiers >65% and public housing ≤5%) plus at least one—or both—of the Essendon rent and yield benchmarks.
• Mid / Mixed Street Profile (Score 50–74): 32 streets pass the core owner-occupier and public-housing thresholds but sit below the suburb median on weekly rent or yield.
• Weaker / Caution Street Profile (Score 0–25): 83 streets fail one or both census tenure thresholds—meaning either owner-occupation sits at or below 65% or state/community public housing exceeds 5% on those specific SA1 blocks.

Top 5 Highest-Scoring Streets in Essendon (VIC)

These streets sit in SA1 census blocks with high homeowner pride of ownership, minimal social housing concentration, and strong block-level rents (inspect all 147 streets in Essendon):

Top Street in Essendon	Street Score	Addresses	Owner-Occupiers	Public Housing	SA1 Rent & Yield
#1 Monica Street	100/100	22	95%	0%	$1225/wk (5.8%)
#2 Jacka Street	100/100	21	95%	0%	$1225/wk (5.8%)
#3 Kalimna Street	100/100	28	79%	0%	$990/wk (5.5%)
#4 Kiora Street	100/100	14	79%	0%	$990/wk (5.5%)
#5 Curtis Street	100/100	10	79%	0%	$990/wk (5.5%)

Streets Where Block-Level Tenure Trails the Essendon Average

By contrast, the streets below run through SA1 census blocks that fail one or more of our tenure or rental tests. A lower Street Score is not a judgement of any individual house, but it highlights where higher renter turnover or public housing concentration exists within Essendon:

Caution Street Sample	Street Score	Addresses	Owner-Occupiers	Public Housing	SA1 Median Rent
Sturt Street	0/100	77	32%	34.3%	$525/wk
Marco Polo Street	0/100	58	32%	34.3%	$525/wk
Salter Street	0/100	68	44%	5.4%	$419/wk

3. Economic & Supply Drivers in Moonee Valley Council (Victoria)

Essendon sits within the Moonee Valley Local Government Area, which has a residential population of approximately 130,501 (+6.3% population movement over the past 3 years) and 50,167 total dwellings. Three council-level fundamentals shape Essendon’s medium-term outlook:

• Local Employment Diversity (ABS Census): The largest employment sectors across Moonee Valley are Retail Trade (16%), Education and Training (11%), Health Care and Social Assistance (11%), Accommodation and Food Services (8%). Multi-sector employment reduces reliance on any single employer or commodity cycle.
• New Building Approvals vs. Existing Stock: Over the latest 12-month financial year, Moonee Valley approved 1.2% new dwelling stock (~652.266 dwellings). Because annual additions sit under 1.8% of stock, incoming supply is constrained relative to tenant and buyer demand.
• Tracked Infrastructure Pipeline: Moonee Valley currently has $1.7 billion in tracked major infrastructure projects (placing it in the 54th percentile of Australian councils).

4. Worked Cashflow, Deposit & 80% LVR Stress-Test for Essendon (September 2026)

What does it actually cost to acquire and hold a typical house in Essendon at today’s median price of $1,815,000 and median rent of $750/wk? Below is the baseline 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) model we use to stress-test serviceability before shortlisting a property:

Cashflow & Capital Item	Essendon Worked Figure	Assumptions & Notes
Purchase Price (Suburb Median)	$1,815,000	Settled house median as of September 2026
20% Deposit + Est. Stamp Duty & Costs	$450,120	$363,000 deposit (80% LVR) + ~$87,120 stamp duty, legal & inspection allowance (can be funded via usable home equity)
80% LVR Loan Amount	$1,452,000	Standard no-LMI investor loan threshold
Gross Annual Rental Income	$39,000/yr ($750/wk)	2.2% gross rental yield before vacancies and expenses
Est. Annual Interest + Operating Costs	$110,715/yr	Assumes 6.25% interest-only ($90,750/yr) + ~1.1% for council rates, insurance & property management ($19,965/yr)
Pre-Tax Weekly Cashflow Position	-$1379/wk top-up	Before tax deductions / depreciation (confirm post-tax position with your accountant)

5. Who Should Buy in Essendon—And 3 Rules Before You Make an Offer

High Land Scarcity and Deep Homeowner Wealth, But Cashflow-Intensive. Based on our September 2026 data, Essendon is best suited to higher-income professionals, medical practitioners, and upgraders with strong cashflow buffers targeting scarce land in an owner-occupier dominated suburb.

1. Never Buy Blind on the Suburb Median: In Essendon, 83 streets score below 50/100 on our census tenure and yield tests. Always run the exact street through the Essendon Street Score Hub and target the 21 streets scoring 75–100/100.
2. Check Lot-Level Overlays (Flood, Bushfire, Slope & Easements): Even on a 100/100 streetlike Monica Street, individual lots can carry overland flow paths, steep gradients, or sewer easements that restrict granny-flat additions or spike insurance premiums.
3. Price Against Street-Matched Settled Comparables: Do not let a selling agent justify an asking price on a 25/100 street using comparable sales from a 100/100 street. Compare settled sales within the same SA1 Street Score band.