Suburb Deep Dives · 17 October 2026 · 5 min read
Patterson Lakes (VIC 3197) in Focus 2026: $1,265,000 Median, 4.9% Yield & 99/100 R-Score
Is Patterson Lakes (VIC 3197) a good suburb to invest in 2026? Our September 2026 quantitative audit scores Patterson Lakes at 99/100 (Ranked #282 of 15,286 suburbs), with a $1,265,000 median house price (-2.7% 12m), $1200/wk rent (4.9% yield), and 20 top-tier streets scoring 75–100/100.
Market Classification: Accelerating Momentum Turnaround · R-Score: 99/100 (National Rank #282 of 15,286) · Street Average: 52/100 across 114 streets.
Lagging 12-month median price tables often miss the inflection point when a suburb transitions from quiet accumulation into active expansion. Over the past year, Patterson Lakes’s R-Score has climbed by +12 points to 99/100 as days on market (95 days) and rental vacancy (2.1%) tightened ahead of the broader VIC market.
Below is our full September 2026 quantitative and street-level breakdown for Patterson Lakes (VIC 3197), combining 36 months of settled price and rental history from our Aurora research warehouse, council-level supply and employment data for Kingston (C) (Vic.) (VIC), and block-by-block ABS 2021 Census SA1 tenure and yield rankings across 4,150 residential addresses.
1. Patterson Lakes (VIC) 3-Year Market Trajectory & 27-Indicator R-Score (September 2026)
Over the past 12 months, Patterson Lakes’s median house price moved -2.7% (from $1,300,000 to $1,265,000), bringing its 3-year cumulative price movement to -24.8% (from $1,682,000 three years ago). On the rental side, median weekly asking rents moved +26.3% over the past year to $1200/wk (+49.8% over 36 months), equating to a 4.9% gross rental yield. Compared with 12 months ago—when Patterson Lakes carried an R-Score of 87/100—its current composite R-Score of 99/100 represents a +12-point shift in underlying market pressure.
| Indicator / R-Score Pillar | Patterson Lakes (VIC) Current | 12-Month / 36-Month Context |
|---|---|---|
| Composite Suburb R-Score | 99 / 100 | Ranked #282 of 15,286 suburbs (was 87/100 12m ago) |
| Median House Price | $1,265,000 | 12m change: -2.7% · 36m change: -24.8% |
| Median Weekly Rent & Gross Yield | $1200/wk (4.9%) | 12m rent change: +26.3% · 36m rent change: +49.8% |
| Rental Vacancy & Days on Market | 2.1% vacancy | Median selling time: 95 days on market (1.5% vacancy is the tight-market line) |
| Pillar 1: Buyer Demand | 32 / 100 | Measures days-on-market compression, vendor discounting & sales velocity |
| Pillar 2: Supply & Ownership | 43 / 100 | Measures stock on market, building approvals vs stock & owner-occupier share |
| Pillar 3: Price Momentum | 80 / 100 | Measures short/medium-term price velocity vs Kingston (C) (Vic.) & VIC |
| Pillar 4: Yield Pressure | 63 / 100 | Measures gross rental yield, rent trajectory & vacancy compression |
2. The “Two-Speed Suburb” Test: Best & Worst Streets in Patterson Lakes (VIC)
Why do two 4-bedroom houses in Patterson Lakes achieve completely different bank valuations and tenant quality? Because suburb medians blend every pocket together. When we map all 4,150 addresses across 114 streets in Patterson Lakes through G-NAF to their ABS 2021 Census SA1 blocks, the suburb splits into three distinct tiers:
- Strong Street Profile (Score 75–100): 20 streets (20% of scored streets) pass both ABS Census tenure tests (owner-occupiers >65% and public housing ≤5%) plus at least one—or both—of the Patterson Lakes rent and yield benchmarks.
- Mid / Mixed Street Profile (Score 50–74): 70 streets pass the core owner-occupier and public-housing thresholds but sit below the suburb median on weekly rent or yield.
- Weaker / Caution Street Profile (Score 0–25): 10 streets fail one or both census tenure thresholds—meaning either owner-occupation sits at or below 65% or state/community public housing exceeds 5% on those specific SA1 blocks.
Top 5 Highest-Scoring Streets in Patterson Lakes (VIC)
These streets sit in SA1 census blocks with high homeowner pride of ownership, minimal social housing concentration, and strong block-level rents (inspect all 114 streets in Patterson Lakes):
| Top Street in Patterson Lakes | Street Score | Addresses | Owner-Occupiers | Public Housing | SA1 Rent & Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Sandridge Court | 100/100 | 26 | 89% | 0% | $85000/wk (432.3%) |
| #2 Mermaid Court | 100/100 | 25 | 89% | 0% | $85000/wk (432.3%) |
| #3 Shell Court | 100/100 | 22 | 89% | 0% | $85000/wk (432.3%) |
| #4 Ocean Reef Drive | 84/100 | 48 | 90% | 0% | $30847/wk (154.9%) |
| #5 Palm Beach Drive | 79/100 | 189 | 87% | 0% | $13601/wk (66.6%) |
Streets Where Block-Level Tenure Trails the Patterson Lakes Average
By contrast, the streets below run through SA1 census blocks that fail one or more of our tenure or rental tests. A lower Street Score is not a judgement of any individual house, but it highlights where higher renter turnover or public housing concentration exists within Patterson Lakes:
| Caution Street Sample | Street Score | Addresses | Owner-Occupiers | Public Housing | SA1 Median Rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colac Court | 25/100 | 34 | 73% | 7% | $675/wk |
| Wyong Court | 25/100 | 33 | 73% | 7% | $675/wk |
| Balarang Court | 25/100 | 21 | 73% | 7% | $675/wk |
3. Economic & Supply Drivers in Kingston (C) (Vic.) Council (Victoria)
Patterson Lakes sits within the Kingston (C) (Vic.) Local Government Area, which has a residential population of approximately 168,061 (+5.1% population movement over the past 3 years) and 63,861 total dwellings. Three council-level fundamentals shape Patterson Lakes’s medium-term outlook:
- Local Employment Diversity (ABS Census): The largest employment sectors across Kingston (C) (Vic.) are Manufacturing (19%), Retail Trade (13%), Construction (8%), Health Care and Social Assistance (8%). Multi-sector employment reduces reliance on any single employer or commodity cycle.
- New Building Approvals vs. Existing Stock: Over the latest 12-month financial year, Kingston (C) (Vic.) approved 0.8% new dwelling stock (~513.133 dwellings). Because annual additions sit under 1.8% of stock, incoming supply is constrained relative to tenant and buyer demand.
- Tracked Infrastructure Pipeline: Kingston (C) (Vic.) currently has $10.6 billion in tracked major infrastructure projects (placing it in the 87th percentile of Australian councils).
4. Worked Cashflow, Deposit & 80% LVR Stress-Test for Patterson Lakes (September 2026)
What does it actually cost to acquire and hold a typical house in Patterson Lakes at today’s median price of $1,265,000 and median rent of $1200/wk? Below is the baseline 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) model we use to stress-test serviceability before shortlisting a property:
| Cashflow & Capital Item | Patterson Lakes Worked Figure | Assumptions & Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase Price (Suburb Median) | $1,265,000 | Settled house median as of September 2026 |
| 20% Deposit + Est. Stamp Duty & Costs | $313,720 | $253,000 deposit (80% LVR) + ~$60,720 stamp duty, legal & inspection allowance (can be funded via usable home equity) |
| 80% LVR Loan Amount | $1,012,000 | Standard no-LMI investor loan threshold |
| Gross Annual Rental Income | $62,400/yr ($1200/wk) | 4.9% gross rental yield before vacancies and expenses |
| Est. Annual Interest + Operating Costs | $77,165/yr | Assumes 6.25% interest-only ($63,250/yr) + ~1.1% for council rates, insurance & property management ($13,915/yr) |
| Pre-Tax Weekly Cashflow Position | -$284/wk top-up | Before tax deductions / depreciation (confirm post-tax position with your accountant) |
5. Who Should Buy in Patterson Lakes—And 3 Rules Before You Make an Offer
R-Score Jumped +12 Points Over the Past 12 Months. Based on our September 2026 data, Patterson Lakes is best suited to higher-income professionals, medical practitioners, and upgraders with strong cashflow buffers targeting scarce land in an owner-occupier dominated suburb.
- Never Buy Blind on the Suburb Median: In Patterson Lakes, 10 streets score below 50/100 on our census tenure and yield tests. Always run the exact street through the Patterson Lakes Street Score Hub and target the 20 streets scoring 75–100/100.
- Check Lot-Level Overlays (Flood, Bushfire, Slope & Easements): Even on a 100/100 streetlike Sandridge Court, individual lots can carry overland flow paths, steep gradients, or sewer easements that restrict granny-flat additions or spike insurance premiums.
- Price Against Street-Matched Settled Comparables: Do not let a selling agent justify an asking price on a 25/100 street using comparable sales from a 100/100 street. Compare settled sales within the same SA1 Street Score band.
If there's a specific street you're weighing up right now, check its Street Score first — it's free, takes ten seconds, and tells you whether that street is pulling the suburb average up or riding on it.
Market data & R-Scores for locations in this article
Drill Down Into the Markets Mentioned Above
Inspect live monthly R-Scores, median prices, rental yields, and street-by-street scores for the cities and council areas referenced in this article:
Frequently asked questions
Is Patterson Lakes (VIC 3197) a good suburb for property investment in 2026?
As of September 2026, Patterson Lakes (VIC 3197) scores 99/100 on the 27-indicator Ripehouse R-Score (ranked #282 of 15,286 Australian suburbs). It is classified as a Accelerating Momentum Turnaround with a median house price of $1,265,000, median rent of $1200/wk (4.9% gross yield), and vacancy rate of 2.1%.
How have house prices and rents performed in Patterson Lakes over the past 1 to 3 years?
Over the past 12 months, Patterson Lakes’s median house price moved -2.7% to $1,265,000, and -24.8% over the past 36 months. Median weekly asking rents moved +26.3% over the past year to $1200/wk (4.9% gross yield).
What are the highest and lowest scoring streets in Patterson Lakes, VIC?
Across 114 streets (4,150 addresses) in Patterson Lakes, 20 streets score 75 to 100 on the Ripehouse Street Score, led by Sandridge Court (100/100, 89% owner-occupied), Mermaid Court (100/100, 89% owner-occupied), Shell Court (100/100, 89% owner-occupied). Meanwhile, 10 streets score below 50 due to lower owner-occupation or public housing concentration above 5%.
How much deposit and weekly cashflow is needed to buy a median house in Patterson Lakes?
At Patterson Lakes’s median house price of $1,265,000, an 80% LVR purchase ($1,012,000 loan) requires approximately $313,720 in cash or usable home equity ($253,000 deposit plus around $60,720 for stamp duty and acquisition costs). At $1200/wk rent and a 6.25% interest-only benchmark, estimated pre-tax cashflow is -$284/wk before tax deductions.
What is the housing supply pipeline and economic profile of Kingston (C) (Vic.) Council?
Patterson Lakes is located in the Kingston (C) (Vic.) (VIC) Local Government Area (population around 168,061, +5.1% 3yr growth). Annual building approvals sit at 0.8% of existing dwelling stock. Tracked major infrastructure spend is $10.6B. Top employment sectors are Manufacturing (19%), Retail Trade (13%), Construction (8%).
General information only. It does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account, and nothing here is legal, financial, taxation or investment advice specific to your circumstances.