Narre Warren South (VIC 3805) in Focus 2026: Is It a Good Investment? R-Score 93/100, 3.7% Yield & Best Streets

Market Classification: Established Family & Commuter Corridor · R-Score: 93/100 (National Rank #1,108 of 15,286) · Street Average: 78/100 across 472 streets.

Narre Warren South (VIC 3805) represents a bread-and-butter Australian family housing market($880,000 median price, $620/wk rent, 3.7% gross yield) supported by +9.6% 3-year council population movement. Here, investment returns are determined almost entirely by micro-location: separating quiet, >65% owner-occupied pockets from main-road or high-public-housing blocks.

“I’d treat the 3.7% gross yield as the starting warning, not the finish line. At an estimated -$412 a week before tax on an 80% LVR purchase, the buyer needs to be selective about price and property quality, rather than assuming a low 1.8% vacancy rate solves the cash-flow problem.”

Looking for the live, monthly-updated numbers? The Narre Warren South (VIC) suburb profile tracks the current median house price, rent, vacancy and R-Score, and the Narre Warren South street-by-street scores rank every street. This article is our investment analysis of what those numbers mean.

Below is our full September 2026 quantitative and street-level breakdown for Narre Warren South (VIC 3805), combining 36 months of settled price and rental history from our Aurora research warehouse, council-level supply and employment data for Casey (VIC), and block-by-block ABS 2021 Census SA1 tenure and yield rankings across 10,330 residential addresses.

1. Narre Warren South (VIC) 3-Year Market Trajectory & 27-Indicator R-Score (September 2026)

Over the past 12 months, Narre Warren South’s median house price moved +7.8% (from $816,300 to $880,000), bringing its 3-year cumulative price movement to -3.4% (from $911,000 three years ago). On the rental side, median weekly asking rents moved +0.8% over the past year to $620/wk (+15.3% over 36 months), equating to a 3.7% gross rental yield. Compared with 12 months ago—when Narre Warren South carried an R-Score of 84/100—its current composite R-Score of 93/100 represents a +9-point shift in underlying market pressure.

Indicator / R-Score Pillar	Narre Warren South (VIC) Current	12-Month / 36-Month Context
Composite Suburb R-Score	93 / 100	Ranked #1,108 of 15,286 suburbs (was 84/100 12m ago)
Median House Price	$880,000	12m change: +7.8% · 36m change: -3.4%
Median Weekly Rent & Gross Yield	$620/wk (3.7%)	12m rent change: +0.8% · 36m rent change: +15.3%
Rental Vacancy & Days on Market	1.8% vacancy	Median selling time: 47 days on market (1.5% vacancy is the tight-market line)
Pillar 1: Buyer Demand	42 / 100	Measures days-on-market compression, vendor discounting & sales velocity
Pillar 2: Supply & Ownership	40 / 100	Measures stock on market, building approvals vs stock & owner-occupier share
Pillar 3: Price Momentum	74 / 100	Measures short/medium-term price velocity vs Casey & VIC
Pillar 4: Yield Pressure	60 / 100	Measures gross rental yield, rent trajectory & vacancy compression

2. The “Two-Speed Suburb” Test: Best & Worst Streets in Narre Warren South (VIC)

Why do two 4-bedroom houses in Narre Warren South achieve completely different bank valuations and tenant quality? Because suburb medians blend every pocket together. When we map all 10,330 addresses across 472 streets in Narre Warren South through G-NAF to their ABS 2021 Census SA1 blocks, the suburb splits into three distinct tiers:

• Strong Street Profile (Score 75–100): 287 streets (74% of scored streets) pass both ABS Census tenure tests (owner-occupiers >65% and public housing ≤5%) plus at least one—or both—of the Narre Warren South rent and yield benchmarks.
• Mid / Mixed Street Profile (Score 50–74): 69 streets pass the core owner-occupier and public-housing thresholds but sit below the suburb median on weekly rent or yield.
• Weaker / Caution Street Profile (Score 0–25): 33 streets fail one or both census tenure thresholds—meaning either owner-occupation sits at or below 65% or state/community public housing exceeds 5% on those specific SA1 blocks.

Top 5 Highest-Scoring Streets in Narre Warren South (VIC)

These streets sit in SA1 census blocks with high homeowner pride of ownership, minimal social housing concentration, and strong block-level rents (inspect all 472 streets in Narre Warren South):

Top Street in Narre Warren South	Street Score	Addresses	Owner-Occupiers	Public Housing	SA1 Rent & Yield
#1 Buttonwood Court	100/100	19	100%	0%	$630/wk (4.2%)
#2 Viewmount Court	100/100	19	100%	0%	$630/wk (4.2%)
#3 Treetop Court	100/100	13	100%	0%	$630/wk (4.2%)
#4 Woodrush Court	100/100	13	100%	0%	$630/wk (4.2%)
#5 Parkwood Avenue	100/100	46	95%	0%	$684/wk (4%)

Streets Where Block-Level Tenure Trails the Narre Warren South Average

By contrast, the streets below run through SA1 census blocks that fail one or more of our tenure or rental tests. A lower Street Score is not a judgement of any individual house, but it highlights where higher renter turnover or public housing concentration exists within Narre Warren South:

Caution Street Sample	Street Score	Addresses	Owner-Occupiers	Public Housing	SA1 Median Rent
Malabar Court	25/100	27	75%	10.6%	$700/wk
Byron Court	25/100	24	75%	10.6%	$700/wk
Damon Close	25/100	32	67%	5.6%	$575/wk

3. Economic & Supply Drivers in Casey Council (Victoria)

Narre Warren South sits within the Casey Local Government Area, which has a residential population of approximately 414,929 (+9.6% population movement over the past 3 years) and 102,049 total dwellings. Three council-level fundamentals shape Narre Warren South’s medium-term outlook:

• Local Employment Diversity (ABS Census): The largest employment sectors across Casey are Retail Trade (16%), Health Care and Social Assistance (13%), Education and Training (12%), Construction (10%). Multi-sector employment reduces reliance on any single employer or commodity cycle.
• New Building Approvals vs. Existing Stock: Over the latest 12-month financial year, Casey approved 3% new dwelling stock (~3,515.023 dwellings). Because new approvals exceed 1.8% of stock, investors in Narre Warren South must avoid generic greenfield house-and-land pockets and stick to established, built-out streets.
• Tracked Infrastructure Pipeline: Casey currently has $13.7 billion in tracked major infrastructure projects (placing it in the 92th percentile of Australian councils).

4. Worked Cashflow, Deposit & 80% LVR Stress-Test for Narre Warren South (September 2026)

What does it actually cost to acquire and hold a typical house in Narre Warren South at today’s median price of $880,000 and median rent of $620/wk? Below is the baseline 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) model we use to stress-test serviceability before shortlisting a property:

Cashflow & Capital Item	Narre Warren South Worked Figure	Assumptions & Notes
Purchase Price (Suburb Median)	$880,000	Settled house median as of September 2026
20% Deposit + Est. Stamp Duty & Costs	$218,240	$176,000 deposit (80% LVR) + ~$42,240 stamp duty, legal & inspection allowance (can be funded via usable home equity)
80% LVR Loan Amount	$704,000	Standard no-LMI investor loan threshold
Gross Annual Rental Income	$32,240/yr ($620/wk)	3.7% gross rental yield before vacancies and expenses
Est. Annual Interest + Operating Costs	$53,680/yr	Assumes 6.25% interest-only ($44,000/yr) + ~1.1% for council rates, insurance & property management ($9,680/yr)
Pre-Tax Weekly Cashflow Position	-$412/wk top-up	Before tax deductions / depreciation (confirm post-tax position with your accountant)

5. Who Should Buy in Narre Warren South—And 3 Rules Before You Make an Offer

Solid 93/100 R-Score Backed by Casey Fundamentals. Based on our September 2026 data, Narre Warren South is best suited to equity-backed homeowners and portfolio builders seeking a balanced entry price ($880,000) and 3.7% rental yield in VIC.

1. Never Buy Blind on the Suburb Median: In Narre Warren South, 33 streets score below 50/100 on our census tenure and yield tests. Always run the exact street through the Narre Warren South Street Score Hub and target the 287 streets scoring 75–100/100.
2. Check Lot-Level Overlays (Flood, Bushfire, Slope & Easements): Even on a 100/100 streetlike Buttonwood Court, individual lots can carry overland flow paths, steep gradients, or sewer easements that restrict granny-flat additions or spike insurance premiums.
3. Price Against Street-Matched Settled Comparables: Do not let a selling agent justify an asking price on a 25/100 street using comparable sales from a 100/100 street. Compare settled sales within the same SA1 Street Score band.