Suburb Deep Dives · 13 October 2026 · 6 min read
Ferny Creek (VIC 3786) in Focus 2026: Is It a Good Investment? R-Score 100/100, 6.5% Yield & Best Streets
Data analysis by the Ripehouse research desk · Reviewed by Anna Cooper, Co-Founder & COO, former Managing Editor of Australian Property Investor Magazine
Is Ferny Creek (VIC 3786) a good suburb to invest in 2026? Our October 2026 quantitative audit scores Ferny Creek at 100/100 (Ranked #100 of 15,286 suburbs), with a $950,000 median house price (-20.8% 12m), $1180/wk rent (6.5% yield), and 0 top-tier streets scoring 75–100/100.
Market Classification: Established Family & Commuter Corridor · R-Score: 100/100 (National Rank #100 of 15,286) · Street Average: 50/100 across 44 streets.
Ferny Creek (VIC 3786) represents a bread-and-butter Australian family housing market($950,000 median price, $1180/wk rent, 6.5% gross yield) supported by +2.3% 3-year council population movement. Here, investment returns are determined almost entirely by micro-location: separating quiet, >65% owner-occupied pockets from main-road or high-public-housing blocks.
“I’d be careful about calling a 6.5% gross yield comfortable when the median house still needs $235,600 in cash or equity at 80% LVR. With 95 days on market, buyers have room to test pricing, but the property’s rentability and condition matter more than the headline yield.”
Below is our full October 2026 quantitative and street-level breakdown for Ferny Creek (VIC 3786), combining 36 months of settled price and rental history from our Aurora research warehouse, council-level supply and employment data for Yarra Ranges (VIC), and block-by-block ABS 2021 Census SA1 tenure and yield rankings across 691 residential addresses.
1. Ferny Creek (VIC) 3-Year Market Trajectory & 27-Indicator R-Score (October 2026)
As of October 2026, Ferny Creek records a settled median house price of $950,000. On the rental side, median weekly asking rents moved +22.9% over the past year to $1180/wk, equating to a 6.5% gross rental yield. Compared with 12 months ago—when Ferny Creek carried an R-Score of 89/100—its current composite R-Score of 100/100 represents a +11-point shift in underlying market pressure.
| Indicator / R-Score Pillar | Ferny Creek (VIC) Current | 12-Month / 36-Month Context |
|---|---|---|
| Composite Suburb R-Score | 100 / 100 | Ranked #100 of 15,286 suburbs (was 89/100 12m ago) |
| Median House Price | $950,000 | 12m change: -20.8% |
| Median Weekly Rent & Gross Yield | $1180/wk (6.5%) | 12m rent change: +22.9% |
| Rental Vacancy & Days on Market | 2.7% vacancy | Median selling time: 95 days on market (1.5% vacancy is the tight-market line) |
| Pillar 1: Buyer Demand | 36 / 100 | Measures days-on-market compression, vendor discounting & sales velocity |
| Pillar 2: Supply & Ownership | 68 / 100 | Measures stock on market, building approvals vs stock & owner-occupier share |
| Pillar 3: Price Momentum | 70 / 100 | Measures short/medium-term price velocity vs Yarra Ranges & VIC |
| Pillar 4: Yield Pressure | 65 / 100 | Measures gross rental yield, rent trajectory & vacancy compression |
2. The “Two-Speed Suburb” Test: Best & Worst Streets in Ferny Creek (VIC)
Why do two 4-bedroom houses in Ferny Creek achieve completely different bank valuations and tenant quality? Because suburb medians blend every pocket together. When we map all 691 addresses across 44 streets in Ferny Creek through G-NAF to their ABS 2021 Census SA1 blocks, the suburb splits into three distinct tiers:
- Strong Street Profile (Score 75–100): 0 streets (0% of scored streets) pass both ABS Census tenure tests (owner-occupiers >65% and public housing ≤5%) plus at least one—or both—of the Ferny Creek rent and yield benchmarks.
- Mid / Mixed Street Profile (Score 50–74): 22 streets pass the core owner-occupier and public-housing thresholds but sit below the suburb median on weekly rent or yield.
- Weaker / Caution Street Profile (Score 0–25): 0 streets fail one or both census tenure thresholds—meaning either owner-occupation sits at or below 65% or state/community public housing exceeds 5% on those specific SA1 blocks.
Top 5 Highest-Scoring Streets in Ferny Creek (VIC)
These streets sit in SA1 census blocks with high homeowner pride of ownership, minimal social housing concentration, and strong block-level rents (inspect all 44 streets in Ferny Creek):
| Top Street in Ferny Creek | Street Score | Addresses | Owner-Occupiers | Public Housing | SA1 Rent & Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Seabreeze Avenue | 50/100 | 38 | 97% | 0% | $1100/wk (4.6%) |
| #2 Mount View Road | 50/100 | 22 | 97% | 0% | $1100/wk (4.6%) |
| #3 Alpine Road | 50/100 | 15 | 97% | 0% | $1100/wk (4.6%) |
| #4 Mt Erin Road | 50/100 | 15 | 97% | 0% | $1100/wk (4.6%) |
| #5 Merimbula Road | 50/100 | 12 | 97% | 0% | $1100/wk (4.6%) |
Streets Where Block-Level Tenure Trails the Ferny Creek Average
By contrast, the streets below run through SA1 census blocks that fail one or more of our tenure or rental tests. A lower Street Score is not a judgement of any individual house, but it highlights where higher renter turnover or public housing concentration exists within Ferny Creek:
| Caution Street Sample | Street Score | Addresses | Owner-Occupiers | Public Housing | SA1 Median Rent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Dandenong Tourist Road | 50/100 | 101 | 89% | 0% | $839/wk |
| One Tree Hill Road | 50/100 | 77 | 96% | 0% | $1075/wk |
| School Road | 50/100 | 63 | 89% | 0% | $802/wk |
3. Economic & Supply Drivers in Yarra Ranges Council (Victoria)
Ferny Creek sits within the Yarra Ranges Local Government Area, which has a residential population of approximately 160,906 (+2.3% population movement over the past 3 years) and 58,971 total dwellings. Three council-level fundamentals shape Ferny Creek’s medium-term outlook:
- Local Employment Diversity (ABS Census): The largest employment sectors across Yarra Ranges are Education and Training (12%), Retail Trade (12%), Health Care and Social Assistance (10%), Manufacturing (10%). Multi-sector employment reduces reliance on any single employer or commodity cycle.
- New Building Approvals vs. Existing Stock: Over the latest 12-month financial year, Yarra Ranges approved 0.8% new dwelling stock (~471.647 dwellings). Because annual additions sit under 1.8% of stock, incoming supply is constrained relative to tenant and buyer demand.
- State Comparison: Compare Ferny Creek against the Top 25 Highest R-Score Suburbs in VIC.
4. Worked Cashflow, Deposit & 80% LVR Stress-Test for Ferny Creek (October 2026)
What does it actually cost to acquire and hold a typical house in Ferny Creek at today’s median price of $950,000 and median rent of $1180/wk? Below is the baseline 80% Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) model we use to stress-test serviceability before shortlisting a property:
| Cashflow & Capital Item | Ferny Creek Worked Figure | Assumptions & Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase Price (Suburb Median) | $950,000 | Settled house median as of October 2026 |
| 20% Deposit + Est. Stamp Duty & Costs | $235,600 | $190,000 deposit (80% LVR) + ~$45,600 stamp duty, legal & inspection allowance (can be funded via usable home equity) |
| 80% LVR Loan Amount | $760,000 | Standard no-LMI investor loan threshold |
| Gross Annual Rental Income | $61,360/yr ($1180/wk) | 6.5% gross rental yield before vacancies and expenses |
| Est. Annual Interest + Operating Costs | $57,950/yr | Assumes 6.25% interest-only ($47,500/yr) + ~1.1% for council rates, insurance & property management ($10,450/yr) |
| Pre-Tax Weekly Cashflow Position | +$66/wk surplus | Before tax deductions / depreciation (confirm post-tax position with your accountant) |
5. Who Should Buy in Ferny Creek—And 3 Rules Before You Make an Offer
Solid 100/100 R-Score Backed by Yarra Ranges Fundamentals. Based on our October 2026 data, Ferny Creek is best suited to equity-backed homeowners and portfolio builders seeking a balanced entry price ($950,000) and 6.5% rental yield in VIC.
- Never Buy Blind on the Suburb Median: In Ferny Creek, 0 streets score below 50/100 on our census tenure and yield tests. Always run the exact street through the Ferny Creek Street Score Hub and target the 0 streets scoring 75–100/100.
- Check Lot-Level Overlays (Flood, Bushfire, Slope & Easements): Even on a 100/100 streetlike Seabreeze Avenue, individual lots can carry overland flow paths, steep gradients, or sewer easements that restrict granny-flat additions or spike insurance premiums.
- Price Against Street-Matched Settled Comparables: Do not let a selling agent justify an asking price on a 25/100 street using comparable sales from a 100/100 street. Compare settled sales within the same SA1 Street Score band.
If there's a specific street you're weighing up right now, check its Street Score first — it's free, takes ten seconds, and tells you whether that street is pulling the suburb average up or riding on it.
Frequently asked questions
Is Ferny Creek (VIC 3786) a good suburb for property investment in 2026?
As of October 2026, Ferny Creek (VIC 3786) scores 100/100 on the 27-indicator Ripehouse R-Score (ranked #100 of 15,286 Australian suburbs). It is classified as a Established Family & Commuter Corridor with a median house price of $950,000, median rent of $1180/wk (6.5% gross yield), and vacancy rate of 2.7%.
How have house prices and rents performed in Ferny Creek over the past 1 to 3 years?
Over the past 12 months, Ferny Creek’s median house price moved -20.8% to $950,000. Median weekly asking rents moved +22.9% over the past year to $1180/wk (6.5% gross yield).
What are the highest and lowest scoring streets in Ferny Creek, VIC?
Across 44 streets (691 addresses) in Ferny Creek, 0 streets score 75 to 100 on the Ripehouse Street Score, led by Seabreeze Avenue (50/100, 97% owner-occupied), Mount View Road (50/100, 97% owner-occupied), Alpine Road (50/100, 97% owner-occupied). Meanwhile, 0 streets score below 50 due to lower owner-occupation or public housing concentration above 5%.
How much deposit and weekly cashflow is needed to buy a median house in Ferny Creek?
At Ferny Creek’s median house price of $950,000, an 80% LVR purchase ($760,000 loan) requires approximately $235,600 in cash or usable home equity ($190,000 deposit plus around $45,600 for stamp duty and acquisition costs). At $1180/wk rent and a 6.25% interest-only benchmark, estimated pre-tax cashflow is +$66/wk before tax deductions.
What is the housing supply pipeline and economic profile of Yarra Ranges Council?
Ferny Creek is located in the Yarra Ranges (VIC) Local Government Area (population around 160,906, +2.3% 3yr growth). Annual building approvals sit at 0.8% of existing dwelling stock. Top employment sectors are Education and Training (12%), Retail Trade (12%), Health Care and Social Assistance (10%).
General information only. It does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account, and nothing here is legal, financial, taxation or investment advice specific to your circumstances.