Market Intel · 27 August 2026 · 5 min read
Hornsby vs Frankston vs Annandale: One Scores 77/100
Hornsby, Frankston and Annandale finished at 34, 77 and 77 in a tight suburb showdown. The data explains why Annandale won, Frankston surged and Hornsby slipped.
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Three suburbs, one month, and a very tight finish
The latest suburb showdown is a good reminder that property investment is a science, not a vibe. Three suburbs went in, and the final spread was only five raw points between the top two, while the third fell to its lowest score in 18 months.
The headline result was simple: Annandale, Frankston and Hornsby finished at 77, 77 and 34. But the real story sits in the data behind those numbers — especially how price, rent, vacancy and seller behaviour interacted in each market.
Hornsby: the $1.9 million suburb with no margin for error
Hornsby, NSW 2077, was the lowest-ranked suburb on the card and posted its lowest score in 18 months.
On the numbers, the issue is straightforward:
- Median house price: $1.9 million in July
- Down 3.4% from the April peak of $1.966 million
- Up just 2.7% on a year ago
- Yield: 2.57%
- Vacancy: 1.6%
- Days on market: 23
- Owner occupied: 49%
- Investors: 36%
- Sales in 12 months: 301
The council picture is not weak. Hornsby Shire shows moderate supply, no flood overlay, employment diversity in the 69th percentile, and a council R score of 74. But the suburb-level maths are doing the damage.
For 18 months, the sold price sat in a flat band between $1.75 million and $1.85 million. Sellers held out, asking prices peaked at $2.395 million in November, then dropped by $700,000 over eight months. In the current market, sellers are asking $200,000 below where buyers are actually paying.
That is why the score landed at 34.
Hornsby vs Frankston vs Annandale: the suburb score is not the whole story
Hornsby is a useful case study in why the headline price alone does not make a market attractive. The suburb has a strong school-catchment and ridge appeal, but at this price point the yield is thin and the market has stalled.
The street-level read matters too. In Hornsby:
- House prices peak west of the station toward Hornsby Heights and the bushland fringe
- The best yields are around the station precinct
- Owner occupation is strongest in the western bushland streets
- Social housing sits at 3%, mostly in older stock east of the line
If you are buying there, you are paying for location and amenity, not cash flow.
Frankston: the biggest one-month jump on the card
Frankston, VIC 3199, was the standout mover. It posted one of the biggest one-month score jumps we have ever aired.
The suburb sits on a deep and active market:
- Median house price: $870,000 in July
- Down 4.4% from the March peak of $910,000
- Up 7.9% on a year ago
- Yield: 3.59%
- Vacancy: 2.2%
- Days on market: 16
- Owner occupied: 48%
- Sales in 12 months: 596
- Population: 36,000
- Median age: 39
- Household income: $1,108 a week
Frankston City itself rated well on the council layer, with a council R score in the 89th percentile, supply at the 35th percentile, and a solid project pipeline. The suburb also carries a SAFAR card of Decile 3 across all four indices, which makes it the least advantaged postcode on tonight’s card.
So why did the score jump?
Because sellers blinked.
Asking prices were $950,000 in October. They have since been cut by $110,000, and sellers are now asking $30,000 below where buyers are actually paying. Vacancy eased from 2.5% in June to 2.2% in July, and yield repaired from its March low of 3.43%.
That is the mechanism: stock cleared, yield improved, score jumped.
Annandale: the only suburb on the card at an all-time high
Annandale, QLD 4814, took top spot on the podium. It also scored 77, but won on the raw score tiebreak.
This was the strongest overall profile on the card:
- Median house price: $803,000 in July
- An all-time high
- Up 15.5% on a year ago
- Yield: 3.89%
- Vacancy: 1.4%
- Days on market: 14
- Owner occupied: 65%
- Sales in 12 months: 108
- Population: 8,500
- Median age: 38
- Household income: $1,981 a week
Townsville City Council was the strongest council on tonight’s card, with a council R score in the 92nd percentile. It also had the strongest population growth on the card, the biggest projects pipeline, and a non-residential construction figure of $3,595 per head, which was 2.4 times Frankston’s.
Annandale’s price chart is the cleanest on the card. The suburb has risen in 21 of the 22 months since October 2024, when the median sat at $625,000. Sellers were asking $7.99 million in March and have converged to $7.85 million, which is $18,000 below the sold median.
The rent is the one caution. It peaked at $650 in September, slipped to $600, and has been flat for five months. Yield has fallen from 4.79% in September to 3.89% now. Price is outrunning rent, which is why the score is 77, not higher.
What the street-level data says
The four-layer method is the point of the exercise. Macro, council, suburb and street all matter, and street-level data often explains why two homes in the same suburb perform very differently.
In Annandale:
- Prices peak toward the river and the James Cook University side
- Yield is better in the older pockets closer to the city side
- Owner occupation is strongest in the family streets
- Social housing is effectively negligible at 0.4%
In Frankston:
- The premium is along the water and toward Oliver’s Hill
- The better yield sits east of the station toward Frankston North and the pines
- Owner occupation is concentrated in the southern hill streets
- Social housing sits at 3% in the northern pocket
In Hornsby:
- The higher prices sit west of the station toward Hornsby Heights
- The better yield is closer to the station precinct
- The suburb-wide median is high, but the return is weak
The Ripehouse Advisory take
This episode reinforces a simple point: score alone does not tell you everything, but the data behind the score tells you a lot.
- Hornsby looks expensive relative to its return, with a stalled price series and thin yield.
- Frankston is the clearest recovery story, because sellers cut hard and the market responded.
- Annandale is the strongest all-round market on the card, with all-time-high pricing, tight vacancy and strong council fundamentals.
For investors, the lesson is not to chase the biggest headline move. It is to understand which part of the market is driving the result, and whether price, rent and vacancy are lining up in your favour.
Download our no-cost Top Five Markets Report 2026 → ripe.house/showdown-ep29
For investors trying to judge whether Hornsby’s premium pricing, Frankston’s recovery or Annandale’s tighter fundamentals offer the better entry point,the webinar breaks down the price, rent and vacancy signals behind each score so you can see what is actually driving the result.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Annandale and Frankston both score 77, and why did Annandale win?
Annandale and Frankston both finished on 77, but Annandale won on the raw score tiebreak. Annandale had the strongest all-round profile on the card, with an all-time-high median price, tighter vacancy and stronger council fundamentals.
What made Hornsby score so much lower than the other two suburbs?
Hornsby scored 34 because its market looked expensive relative to its return. The median house price was $1.9 million, yield was only 2.57%, and the suburb had stalled price growth with sellers asking well above where buyers were actually paying.
Why was Frankston described as the biggest one-month mover?
Frankston jumped because sellers cut asking prices and the market responded. Vacancy eased, yield improved, and the suburb posted one of the biggest one-month score gains on the card.
What is the main risk in Annandale even though it scored the highest?
The main caution is that price is outrunning rent. Annandale’s yield has fallen as the median price hit an all-time high, while rents have been flat for five months.
What should investors take from the Hornsby vs Frankston vs Annandale comparison?
The key lesson is that the suburb score is only part of the picture. Investors should look at how price, rent, vacancy and seller behaviour line up, and remember that different streets within the same suburb can perform very differently.
General information only. It does not take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account, and nothing here is legal, financial, taxation or investment advice specific to your circumstances.
