▶ Watch the full video on YouTube: 20% Perth Fall Still Leaves a Cushion

Perth and Melbourne are not facing the same kind of downside, even if the headline percentage looks similar. The real question is not how far prices fall, but how much runway sits underneath the market you own — and that is where a suburb-level view matters.

Perth property market vs Melbourne: the runway matters more than the fall

New modelling from Cotality shows why national headlines can be misleading. Their scenarios run from 5% to 20% declines from peak, but the impact is not the same across markets.

Cotality says Melbourne peaked at $840,000 in November 2025. A decline beyond 10% would take values back to pre-pandemic levels. In other words, 10% out of Melbourne would erase roughly five years of gains.

Perth is different. On the same model, Perth could fall a full 20% and still sit around where it was in April 2025. The same-sized percentage move has a very different consequence because five years of exceptional growth built a much larger buffer underneath it.

That is the point the headlines miss: the percentage is the same, but the damage is not.

What the national forecasts are really saying about Australian property prices

ANZ is forecasting national prices down 4.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Their state-city view is sharper:

  • Sydney: 14.5% peak to trough
  • Melbourne: 12.8% peak to trough

But the more important part of their outlook is the conclusion, not the headline number. ANZ says that, given the supply backdrop and capacity constraints in construction, it is hard to see housing prices falling for an extended period. Their recovery view points to 2028.

That is a reminder that property markets do not move like a single number on a chart. They move by supply, demand, and the quality of the specific asset.

Discounting is rising, but the market is not one market

This week’s broader market backdrop shows more discipline, not panic.

  • Discounting on private sales has widened to 3.6%
  • One in four listings has already issued a lower second price guide
  • The Reserve Bank Governor has said house prices are not the main game for rate decisions

That last point matters. Nobody is coming to rescue an average property. Which is why professional buyers need to stop thinking in averages and start thinking in buffers, supply tightness, and street-level demand.

Why our R-Score flags two Victorian suburbs with no buffer left

On our screens this morning, two Victorian suburbs stood out.

Heathcote, Central Victoria

Heathcote is in the 100th percentile on our R-Score and sits in the one state Cotality said has no buffer left.

Key figures:

  • Median price: $540,000
  • Yield: 4.81%
  • Days on market: 15 days
  • Discounting: 2.76%
  • Short-term sold values: up 11.2%
  • Owner-occupied share: 80%

The short-term metrics are important because they show a market that is still moving, even when the national average suggests caution.

Yallourn North, Latrobe Valley

Yallourn North is also sitting at the top end of our screening.

Key figures:

  • Median price: $320,000
  • Yield: 7.15%
  • Vacancy: 1.2%
  • New supply: zero in six months
  • Short-term sold values: up 19.3%

It is in the 100th percentile for supply tightness in the country. That is exactly why the buffer is not a state-level story. It is a suburb-by-suburb story.

Street level beats suburb averages every time

Heathcote is a good example of why a suburb median can hide more than it reveals.

On one street, sold prices average $821,000. On another, they average $425,000.

That is a spread of $396,000 within the same postcode.

The rent story is just as important:

  • Rent range: $360 to $450 a week
  • Cheap-to-buy streets are not always the cheap-to-rent streets
  • Owner-occupier share ranges from 67% to 93%
  • Social housing concentration ranges from 0% to 6%

This is why street-level research matters. The suburb median is useful, but it does not tell you whether you are buying into the better end of the street, the better tenancy profile, or the stronger long-term hold.

The Ripehouse Advisory take

The right question is not whether the market is falling. The right question is how much runway sits under the specific property you are buying.

That is why we use suburb data, street-level supply checks, and our R-Score framework to separate the strong assets from the average ones. In a market where averages can mislead, professional research gives you the edge.

Download our no-cost Top Five Markets Report 2026 → ripe.house/brief-buffer

General information only, not financial advice.